Ismail, G. (2020). Standard Estimating for the Quantity of Wheat Imports Required to Achieve Food Security in Egypt. Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Research, 98(1), 186-200. doi: 10.21608/ejar.2020.118602
Ghada A. F. M. Ismail. "Standard Estimating for the Quantity of Wheat Imports Required to Achieve Food Security in Egypt". Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Research, 98, 1, 2020, 186-200. doi: 10.21608/ejar.2020.118602
Ismail, G. (2020). 'Standard Estimating for the Quantity of Wheat Imports Required to Achieve Food Security in Egypt', Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Research, 98(1), pp. 186-200. doi: 10.21608/ejar.2020.118602
Ismail, G. Standard Estimating for the Quantity of Wheat Imports Required to Achieve Food Security in Egypt. Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Research, 2020; 98(1): 186-200. doi: 10.21608/ejar.2020.118602
Standard Estimating for the Quantity of Wheat Imports Required to Achieve Food Security in Egypt
Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Agricultural Research Center
Abstract
The issue of food and food security is one of the most important strategic issues on the international scene, because of its political, economic and social dimensions, there is a strong relationship between the food security and the national security of any society, and the agricultural development strategy in Egypt has aimed at improving self-sufficiency and reducing the food gap from strategic food crops. The aim of the project is to provide a better level of food security, and wheat is the first strategic crop in Egypt, and given the vulnerability of production areas to inappropriate climatic conditions, especially in the circumstances that are now sweeping the world to the Covid-19 pandemic, this could exacerbate the food problem and increase food prices .It is therefore necessary to address this problem by maintaining a strategic wheat stock that will be sufficient for consumption needs for at least six months as food security.
Through studying the current situation of food security, it was found that the quantity of strategic wheat stocks amounted to about 2221.5 thousand tons, enough for local consumption for 63 days, and the value of the food security factor during the study period was 0.173. According to the unconventional method of analysis known as the Tobit model to measure the impact of economic factors on the food security factor of wheat, the most important of which was local production and consumption and the amount of Egyptian imports of wheat, and the significance of the effect of these factors has been proven, in addition to matching the regression coefficients signs with the independent variables of economic theory assumptions, and to achieve a level of 0.5 For food security laboratories, an amount of 15,197,156,000 tons of wheat are required for each of them in 2023 and 2025, respectively.
But in light of achieving the full level of food security laboratories, it requires importing a quantity of wheat amounting to 22046 and 22468 thousand tons each in 2023 and 2025 respectively.
And the research recommends the necessity of increasing the food security coefficient of wheat from 0.173 to 0.5 in order to create a strategic stockpile enough for local consumption for at least six months, by taking some policies, the most important of which are:
1- Expanding wheat production in light of the increase in the cultivated area until it reaches approximately 4 million acres.
2- Rationalizing wheat consumption in urban and rural areas. Managing the resources needed to import wheat to achieve the targeted levels of food security laboratories in 2023 and 2024
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